There are a couple of things about the elections that I would like to mention, and while I haven't read all the usual authoritative sources on it, I'll add in my two cents, for all their worth.
The most notable element of the election is the turnout. 84% of the electorate showing up, that is huge, and voter registration was already at a record high in December. Usually about 70 % of the French electorate make it to the polls. This high participation is probably a reaction to the national shame and embarrassment felt after the infamous first round of the 2002 election, in which Le Pen and Chirac ended the day as front runners. Actually, this result was predictable, the Socialist Jospin was the dullest candidate ever (a la Gore in 2000), and the French electoral system, geared to recompense the highest turnout by political party, this time rewarded Le Pen's party, the Front National (FN). Slowly but surely, the FN polished its party mobilization to the polls, and their 16,2% wasn't a surprise for anyone who'd observed their trend over the past 20-25 years. It certainly wasn't a suprise to Le Pen.
So why did Le Pen get 6 points less this time around? Does this mean that the FN is loosing its clout? That some French are less angry about foreigners coming into their great country to 'steal jobs and abuse the Social Security system'? Not at all. This time, the 6 points decrease in Le Pen's performance isn't due to a lesser appeal or a subdued fear of the non-French, or even the fact that the people constituting those 6 points weren't angry enough to go vote. It would be naive to believe that all is rosy for everyone in the former European super-power. These people didn't stay home and pout, they voted for the one person who they knew would stand a better chance than the sulfurous Le Pen and who increasingly has lend them his ear: Sarkozy.
In the past three years in France, I've heard hair-raising plans to deal with the banlieues, the second and third generation immigrants, fully French, and barely 'assimilated in French culture'. Plans to clean out the banlieues with 'karcher' (high pressure water hoses), promises that every car arsonist caught in October and November 2005 would be sent home (most were born in France), all this tough talk to lure voters away from Le Pen and right into his pocket. I'm worried about what he'll give them in return were he to win the second round, and when the banlieues start burning again.
That is not to say that I'm fully happy with Royal (Sego). She's got a pretty good resume, but no chutzpah. She's too cautious, and has started to walk in line with the ranks of the complacent and soporific Socialists.
That being said, this is the best result that could possibly have come out of this first round of elections. I think that there are enough people in France who dislike Sarkozy enough to mobilize again in two weeks. It won't be easy because right now the polls are predicting a Sarko win, and because Sego looks duller by the minute. The turnout won't be anything like the one for the second round of 2002, though, when the choice was a no-brainer and Chirac walked out with 80% of the votes and overwhelming support (that quickly fizzled). It seems that the French now have the following choice: either major changes in the wrong direction, or same-old.
Voila mes deux centimes.
